Outcome-driven trajectory tracking
A dataset regarding a plurality of applications is obtained. A set of parameters is determined from the dataset, comprising at least a sample performance trajectory, a risk factor, and a performance outcome. A maximum likelihood of each performance outcome is determined using a likelihood function, the likelihood function being a mixture model of a trajectory model and an outcome model. The set of parameters is updated according to the maximum likelihood of each performance outcome. A performance trajectory model is built according to the updated set of parameters. The plurality of applications is then grouped into subgroups according to the performance trajectory model, each subgroup containing one or more applications, and each of the one or more applications in a given subgroup having a same or similar trajectory to each other. An alert associated with the applications in at least one of subgroups may be generated.
International Business Machines Corporation
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Hai Feng Zhi Xiang Guo Tong Shi Jing Shi Wan
Liu Qiao Li Xie Guo Zhao